A Curious Tendency Toward Doom

...Peak Oil catastrophism is largely a manifestation of our primary cultural myth: that all things end with suffering, death, and then resurrection. Belief in apocalypse is programmed into western civilization. Given our heritage, “the end is nigh” is the nearly unavoidable personal and collective response to times of uncertainty and rapid change. _Pattern Literacy

Peak oil predictions go back at least to the 1850's. Predictions of "the end of oil" have been with us as long as oil itself.

Peak oil has a longer history than you think. Although the models that define the American peak oil hypothesis were first advanced in the 1950s, predictions of the imminent depletion of American oil reserves can be found much earlier. In fact, one of the earliest known warnings that the United States would run out of oil was released on Jan. 19, 1922, when the U.S. Geological Survey warned the public that only two decades of oil remained in the ground, if present consumption patterns held steady. _Motley Fool

King Hubbert is the originator of modern peak oil models, but most of Hubbert's real world predictions are proving wrong.

Most people acknowledge that the Earth's supply of petroleum is finite, and will one day become too expensive to extract. The problem, to many people, seems to be in timing the peak.

Modern history of peak oil predictions (Wikipedia)

But the issue of peak oil is secondary to the issue of peak affordable energy. Modern societies are slowly shifting much of their energy load to electrical power sources, which can be generated by multiple forms of energy besides oil.

Newer, safer, more scalable, reliable, and affordable forms of nuclear power would be the obvious goal of rational societies, in the pursuit of an electrical energy future. But ample supplies of natural gas, coal, gas hydrates, bitumens, kerogens, and eventually advanced biomass, could supply careful societies with power and heat for centuries to come.

The question seems to revolve around the issue of "liquid fuels," for powering airplanes, ships, trains, and other transportation vehicles. And yet we know that with the assistance of high temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors (HTGRs) -- already well along in the design and development stage -- the world's massive supplies of gas, coal, hydrates, bitumens, kerogens, and biomass can be converted affordably into high quality liquid fuels, chemicals, polymers, lubricants, fertilisers, and other useful substances.

The problem, though, is neither "peak oil," nore "peak energy." The problem is "peak ingenuity," or the shortage of good ideas and the will the implement them.

For readers who have freed themselves from "the apocalyptic compulsion," and who are honestly looking for a path out of the apparent abyss, take a careful and open look at The Ultimate Resource.

As long as human minds remain free, solutions to problems can be devised. Whether governments and other powerful interests will allow problems to be solved, or not, is another question. Many of those governments and powerful institutions are led by people who are in thrall to the apocalyptic instinct.

But we will do what we can to find pathways to a more abundant future. Nobody said it would be easy.

New Resources Re-Writing the Books on Energy

Intermittent high oil prices over the past 5 years have triggered the expansion of new technologies in hydrocarbon exploration, discovery, production, and advanced recovery. This revolution of new energy technologies has barely begun. As long as prices continue to be held high by a combination of market and political factors, this bonanza of new discovery and production is likely to continue expanding around the globe.

The assumption that the world was at or near “peak oil” has been a driving force behind predictions that the 21st century would be an era of U.S.-China competition... The assumption that there were few major discoveries left to be made also led many to forecast that the Middle East and especially the Gulf region would continue to be a major fulcrum in global affairs...

...none of that looks true anymore. Advances in extraction technology have changed our understanding of the world’s energy future.... the amount of available energy out there may be even greater than we now think. Because the extraction technology is new, and because it is still developing, much of the world has not been surveyed for these unconventional deposits. Both on land and under the sea, there is a lot of territory still to explore.

...Much of the punditry of the last ten years is looking suddenly obsolete; a number of writers are going to hope that some of the books and articles they’ve recently published will be quickly forgotten. _WRM

The peak oil doomer punditry was lucrative enough, as long as it looked as if the world was running out of oil, gas, and energy in general. But the antidote to ignorance is knowledge, and the mainstream energy press has just begun to stumble upon a mountain of knowledge which more astute analysts have been climbing for years now.

...on the bigger stage of world politics, it’s the United States that benefits most from the energy revolution. To begin with, the core objective of the United States—a reasonably stable, orderly and liberal global system—is a lot easier to achieve in an era of energy abundance than in one of tough resource competition. Oil is a lubricant, and the more the world has, the more smoothly things are likely to run. A world in which jealous, competing states are trying to elbow each other aside to access the last few remaining pools of oil is a much nastier place than one in which the whole oil question is a lot more laid back. Abundant energy will also promote global economic growth, an effect that strengthens and stabilizes the world system. It is easier for countries to cooperate when their economies are doing well. There is less nationalist pressure inside countries driving political leaders to take confrontational stands, and it is easier to negotiate win-win solutions and build functioning international institutions when all parties are relatively optimistic about their prospects. _WRM

Walter Russell Mead may be a bit optimistic -- like many other writers -- concerning the political fallout of the new energy technologies. Politicians are unlikely to suddenly grow wiser and less corrupt, simply because the industrial world now has a few more decades worth of hydrocarbons to utilise while converting to more advanced energies of the future.

Shale Oil & Gas for the Next US Century

Estimates of how much unconventional gas America has at its disposal vary. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) puts it at around 37tcm of recoverable reserves, two-thirds of which is shale gas and the rest tight gas and coal-bed methane. Others say there is plenty more. Using the EIA numbers, President Barack Obama, in his state-of-the-union speech in January, said that America now has nearly 100 years of gas supplies at current consumption rates.

Earlier this year gas dipped below $2 per million Btu (British thermal units, a measure of heating power), a price not seen since 2001. It now hovers around $2.20 and seems likely to stay low for a while. Lots of gas and falling prices sent many rigs heading to oil-rich shales to take advantage of high prices for crude. Such wells yield plenty of gas as a by-product. Wells producing only “dry” gas have been shut down where contracts allow, but wells that produce NGLs, also pegged to oil prices, are still producing too. Most analysts agree that gas prices will eventually settle around $4-5 mBtu. _Economist

Economist

Dow Chemical and others have announced a raft of new investments in America to take advantage of low gas prices. Methanex, the world’s biggest methanol producer, is considering dismantling a huge ethylene cracker in Chile and rebuilding it on America’s Gulf coast. The United States might export fewer cheap raw materials to countries with low labour costs to be made into goods to export back to America. The country could do the job itself, shortening the supply chain and returning manufacturing jobs to America in industries where petrochemicals are a large part of the cost base. PricewaterhouseCoopers, a large accountancy firm, reckons that lower feedstock and energy costs could result in 1m more American factory jobs by 2025.

There are non-industrial benefits too. According to MIT, residential and commercial buildings account for over 40% of America’s total energy consumption, in the form of electricity or gas, making up over half the country’s demand for gas. Low gas prices have meant that the cost of heating schools and other government buildings, often itemised on local tax bills, is falling.

Gas at $2.50 mBtu is the equivalent of a barrel of oil at $15 rather than $100. For the moment cars, buses and lorries are almost entirely dependent on refined crude oil. But gas can be used to propel vehicles in a number of ways: directly either as compressed natural gas (CNG) or LNG, or indirectly by converting gas into liquid fuel or power for electric vehicles. So far only 3% of America’s gas production is finding its way into vehicles.

America’s fleet of natural-gas vehicles (NGV) doubled between 2003 and 2009, though at 110,000 it still makes up only 0.1% of all vehicles on the road. Dallas-Fort Worth airport runs 500 maintenance vehicles on gas (and has allowed fracking beneath one of its runways). AT&T, a telecoms company, is set to buy 8,000 CNG vehicles over five years, giving it the largest commercial NGV fleet in the country. School buses, refuse lorries and other municipal vehicles are switching fast. _Economist

US shale oil production average breakeven price is currently between $45 and $50 a barrel. Anadarko and Utica Shale oil breakeven is higher -- around $65 to $70 a barrel, but as production in those fields begins to scale up, breakeven prices are likely to drop. Regardless, there is little likelihood that the price of oil will fall below those levels anytime soon -- at least not for long.

More at Carpe Diem

And despite current low US natural gas prices and a temporary slowdown in drilling as a result, the longterm prospects for US natural gas production are quite good.

One must almost pity the persons who are so eager to see peak oil doom and peak energy doom, that they are willing to interpret every shifting trend in energy prices or production as confirmation of their doomer cult belief system.

One sees the same unconscious superstitious bias among many believers in climate catastrophe doom -- the carbon hysterics. But as long as national economies do not allow lefty-Luddite green dieoff orgiasts to control their economies and energy policies, the harm that is done by such cultists can be generally limited.

Leftist Greens Have Little to Offer But Oft-Falsified Predictions

... in the name of averting global economic disaster, concerned greens have been pushing the very policies most likely to cause it. Driving up energy prices, discouraging consumption, increasing regulation, rationing resources: these are not, I think we can all agree, methods traditionally associated with getting an economy out of a depression.

...‘The world has produced about one trillion barrels of oil since the start of industry in the 19th century. Currently, it is thought that there are at least five trillion barrels of petroleum resources, of which 1.4 trillion is sufficiently developed and technically and economically accessible to count as proved.’

And that’s just oil. We haven’t got on to the miracle of shale gas yet, found in such abundance in the US that energy costs have plummeted... _Spectator

Instead of global warming, more scientists are beginning to see signs of a coming cooling trend. In the face of colder winters, green platitudes about lower consumption and less carbon use are less than cold comfort -- they are a deadly hazard to society in general, when adopted by politicians and intellectual celebrities at the highest levels.

Bild reports that in Rome, Italy, school was called off today because of the intense cold and the city expects 15 cm of snow overnight.

In Serbia, over 6 feet of snow have fallen over the last few weeks. In Turkey heavy snows have have blanketed much of the country, with 50cm falling in Istanbul on Wednesday.

At Atatürk-Flughafen in Istanbul 180 flights were cancelled.

According to the BBC: “In Italy, weather experts say it is the coldest week for 27 years.”

In the Urals and Siberia, the temperature fell to -40C while in the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana, a forecaster told Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency the wind-chill factor meant the real temperature was down to -52C, even though the air temperature was -35C.”

Gas and electricitry supply have collapsed in some areas, leaving many to shiver.

Bild reported Thursday that a new cold record had been set in Finland: minus 39°C was recorded in Northern Finland.

In Eastern Germany, temperatures are forecast to plummet to minus 20°C in the days ahead. According to Helmut Malewski of the German Weather Service: “No warm-up is in sight for the coming 8 days.” _NoTricks

In an era of global cooling, prohibitions against the use of oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power make very little sense -- although they make a great deal of sense to green leftists of the dieoff persuasion.

Here are some historical predictions of peak energy, to consider:

Here’s what Lord Kelvin had to say on the subject of another scarce resource, back in 1902: ‘The enormous amount of coal required to run our great ocean steamships, our leviathans of the deep, and the innumerable factories of our cities is making such inroads upon the available store that nature cannot forever supply the demand. When all the coal of the earth is used, what then?’

Twenty years later, the situation had grown more dire still. US president Warren Harding’s Coal Commission, having consulted 500 experts, concluded: ‘Already the output of [natural] gas has begun to wane. Production of oil cannot long maintain its present rate.’ Then in 1956, another renowned expert called M. King Hubbert declared that oil reserves were far more limited than was generally recognised; in the US supplies would peak between 1965 and 1970. Sure enough US oil production did indeed peak in 1970. Woah! How spookily prescient was that?

Actually, not very. Last year, for the first time since the 1940s, the US became a net exporter of oil — helped by such discoveries as the Bakken shale beneath North Dakota, which is reckoned to have between 4 ­billion and 24 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Around the world, despite a drilling rate of around 93 million barrels of oil a day, the quantity of known reserves at the end of each year is increasing, not decreasing.
_Spectator

Predictions of catastrophe are flexible. One can use peak resources, peak energy, peak oil . . . One can conjure doom from global warming, global cooling, pollution, overpopulation . . . Yes, very flexible. Eventually, if one were more intelligent, he might actually start looking a bit deeper.

Rocky Mountain Confederation: Leading the World in Energy Assets

Rocky Mountain Confederacy
The "Rocky Mountain Confederacy" pictured above contains over a trillion barrels of bitumen oil equivalent from Alberta and Saskatchewan's oil sands; over a trillion barrels of kerogen oil equivalent from Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah; large deposits of shale oil in North Dakota, Montana, Alberta and Saskatchewan; huge crude oil deposits in the Arctic; large coal deposits throughout the region; and huge deposits of natural gas of both conventional and unconventional nature.

The Rocky Mountain Confederacy could easily become the largest energy exporting nation on the planet -- containing far more energy than Saudi Arabi, Iran, and Iraq combined, except for one thing -- it does not exist.

In order for such a nation to exist, something bad would have to happen to Canada and the US. Which means that something very, very bad will have happened to the rest of the world. Which means that the export market for all of that energy will not be very large.

You may consider that to be an extreme example of the "peak demand" theory, which states that demand for fossil fuels will collapse long before supplies are restricted enough to collapse the world economy. When the world economy collapses, it will be for other reasons than because all the affordable fossil fuels have been consumed.

When the fecal matter contacts the rotating blades does it really matter what caused it? Actually, it makes a great deal of difference in terms of re-starting a technological civilisation. If a re-born civilisation has both resources and blueprints available to jump-start technological infrastructure, the resumption of the path to beyond the stars will be that much easier.

In the meantime, should you ever wonder where the energy will come from, to transition to more advanced energy infrastructures, consider the many trillions of barrels residing within the Rocky Mountain Confederation. Should both of the governments in Washington and Ottawa ever descend into a full scale energy starvation at the same time, that may be one confederation of states and provinces which will choose to object.

Adapted from a previous Al Fin posting.

Do We Really Want to Consume All of These Geo-Hydrocarbons?

The doomsayers of the 1970s thought we would have run out of oil by now because they compared knowledge about the state of supply then with rates of consumption then, and concluded that those available supplies would soon be exhausted. But we have consumed 40 more years’ worth of oil since then and yet find ourselves with more reserves than we believed we had in 1970.

That is possible because the supply of oil isn’t only what is in the earth’s crust. Supply is also determined by the application of human intelligence to the problem of finding the oil we need. Today’s extra reserves are not due chiefly to discoveries of new deposits, but from wringing more supply from already known reserves through enhanced recovery techniques.

...We are nowhere near to running out of natural resources. Human creativity and financial resources together will ensure a continued supply of all the resources we need. The exact form those resources will take cannot be known today, however. It relies on future innovations, which are, by their nature, unpredictable because they will be the fruit of our imagination and curiosity. That is why the human mind is the greatest natural resource of all. _FP

IEA 2008 Taken from CSIRO 2011 (PDF)
It is only a matter of time before fuels produced from agricultural, forestry, municipal waste, marine biomass, and microbial production become cost competitive with geo-hydrocarbons. Since such renewable fuels can be produced virtually anywhere on the inhabited parts of the planet, once the infrastructure is in place to produce economically competitive renewable liquid fuels, the need for geo-hydrocarbons is likely to shrink steadily, for all parts of the world except for those regions capable of very cheap production of geo-hydrocarbons.

From Data in Rogner 1997 (PDF) via GWPFLikewise, for electricity production, the development of advanced fission reactors which are safer, cleaner, cheaper, more scalable in production, less prone to proliferation and storage hazards, and capable of burning fuel much more thoroughly -- these newer reactors will make the use of coal, gas, and oil for power production virtually obsolete except for areas rich in geo-hydrocarbons which are unable to afford or operate nuclear reactors. If scalable fusion and LENR reactors become workable, the obsolescence of hydrocarbons for production of heat and power should be that much more complete.

The quantities of geo-hydrocarbon pictured in the graphs above are almost certainly gross underestimates -- and it is likely that to some extent "wet gas" is produced on a quasi-renewable basis deep in the crust or in the upper mantle of the planet. Some of that gas may even migrate to upper levels to become economically recoverable. And some of those "renewable" short-chain geo-hycrocarbons may be converted by bacteria into a crude oil, deep in the crust. If so, estimates of Earth's geo-hydrocarbon complement are hugely underestimated by virtually every published source.

CSIRO_2011 (PDF)
We can find clean and affordable ways to use most of these geo-hydrocarbons, certainly. But the plain truth is that we should not have to. We are developing enough alternatives so that we will not require these resources, most of which should remain in place for the time should humans ever go back to a more primitive, more Luddist age.

Substituting renewable synthetic liquid fuels for conventional transportation fuels, and nuclear powered electricity and heat for power from coal and gas, will allow for a relatively smooth transition from geo-hydrocarbons to fuels and energy that will take us at least to the next millenium.

And if we ever do need the geo-hydrocarbons? There will be more in place then, than there were 200 years ago.

Growing Boom in Sub-Salt and Unconventional Oil Reservoirs

You can call it subsalt exploration, presalt exploration or whatever makes you happy.

Just don’t forget to call exploration beneath salt bodies a big deal.

These plays are not new, yet the announcement of the giant Petrobras-operated Tupi field presalt oil discovery in 2006 offshore Brazil in the Santos Basin triggered major excitement in the E&P community and elsewhere. _AAPG.org

AAPG.org
It seems that these finds are just getting started -- and are putting Brazil on the "big-oil" map big time.

Brazil has a sunken treasure off its shores… though not the type Jack Sparrow [That's Captain Jack Sparrow to you!] might seek.

Instead, it is stashed beneath miles of water, rock and layers of salt beneath the ocean’s floor. And these so-called “pre-salt” oil fields make for the biggest oil discovery in the Americas since the 1970s.

Brazil’s oil regulator estimates they contain about 50 billion barrels of oil equivalent. That’s more than enough to turn Brazil into one of the world’s top oil producers in this upcoming decade. _InvestmentU

As you know, Brazil's offshore oil riches derive from vast fields of algae that have been well-fed by nutrients from the Amazon for many tens of millions of years. One might expect similar rich fields in the Gulf of Mexico, similarly fed by the Mississippi for many tens of millions of years. A lot of drillers happen to be chomping at the bit for the lead-footed (and perhaps lead-poisoned) Obama regime to lift its energy-starvation policies so that they can go after those rich fields.

McMoran Exploration (MMR) remains convinced that there are still good ultra-deep oil and gas prospects at shallow depths in the Gulf of Mexico. That exploration is still in its infancy, though, and it’s far from clear that these high-risk, sub-salt reserves can ultimately be recovered at economically attractive costs.

...Simply put, management believes companies like Exxon just didn’t dig deep enough. McMoran’s drilling strategy is focused on extracting reserves thought to exist below the “salt weld” — specifically, hydrocarbon-bearing sands in the “deep gas plays” (depths of 15,000 to 25,000 feet) and “ultra-deep gas plays” below 25,000 feet. _bnet.com

Given the geologic history of the region, such deep finds are not beyond reason. But since the Obama administration is dragging its feet on offshore drilling, that puts more pressure on unconventional wells to produce. And these wells appear to be more than up to the challenge.

...analysts predicted that the new activity, centered on so-called unconventional reservoirs, could greatly boost domestic oil production and help offset declining output in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico.

These reservoirs, trapped in tight shale-rock formations, were deemed too hard to crack a decade ago. But in the past two years, breakthroughs in drilling technology, combined with high oil prices, have led companies like Chesapeake and Petrohawk to switch rigs formerly devoted to drilling for natural gas to emerging oilfields like the Eagle Ford shale formation, which stretches from the outskirts of Houston and San Antonio, Texas, south into Mexico.

...The Eagle Ford experienced a more-than-tenfold increase in the number of wells drilled last year over the 94 completed in 2009 and is slated for even more development this year. And the trend is playing out nationally, in formations such as the Bakken Shale in North Dakota and the Monterey Shale in California.

Oil production from these sources is expected to reach 1.5 million barrels a day by 2015 from fewer than 500,000 barrels a day now, according to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. That is similar to the amount of crude produced in the offshore Gulf of Mexico, and the equivalent of nearly 30% of current U.S. production. That extra million barrels per day could help replace some expensive oil imports as conventional oilfields in the rest of the country decline. _Rigzone

Of course Obama's EPA is doing everything it can behind-the-scenes to shut down unconventional oil and gas. That is simply part and parcel of what it means to press a policy of "energy starvation." Just part of being lefty-Luddites no doubt. In the same way as they have shut down offshore oil drilling, the Obama regime is also overtly and covertly working on shutting down coal mines, coal power plants, Canadian oil sands, Green River oil shale, and is dragging its feet on certifying and permitting safe, new, reliable nuclear reactors.

The only kind of energy the Obama administration seems to like, is the unreliable and exorbitantly expensive kind -- solar and wind. It's not enough for Europe to be suffering for its foolish eyes-closed dive into the shallow rocky bottoms of wind and solar power. Obama simply must force the same suicidal approach on the US, while he still has the chance.

Unfortunately for the Obama-suicidal administration, the executive branch is not the only branch of the US government. And in the lower house of the legislative branch, a new pro-energy sheriff just rode into town ready to kick ass and take names. And if that sheriff fails to do the job, there are several others waiting and ready to get the backing of the US Tea Party factions, to do it for them.

There is plenty of oil, plenty of coal, plenty of gas, plenty of fissionable fuels . . . Unfortunately, there are also plenty of lefty-Luddites of the dieoff.orgy persuasion, who want to force their suicidal derangement onto everyone else. I suspect that enough people will wake up before that happens, who will show these Luddites to the edge of the cliff and invite them to take the first plunge.

North America as the New Energy Kingdom?

With rising production from shale fields, the U.S. surpassed Russia last year to become the world’s largest supplier of natural gas. Shale now accounts for 10 per cent of the country’s natural gas production – up from 2 per cent in 1990. Chesapeake’s production from its next Texas project, expected by the end of 2012, will by itself supply the energy equivalent of 500,000 barrels of oil a day. _Globe&Mail

We know that Canada is overflowing with hydrocarbons from shale oil to oil sands to coal to natural gas to methane hydrates.... But the US was supposed to be "all tapped out" ever since oil production peaked back around 1970. Is it possible that all of the peak oil and peak energy doomers who foretold the end of US oil & gas may have been a bit premature?

U.S. domestic production for the year will be 140,000 barrels a day higher than last year (which was 410,000 barrels a day higher than 2008). Although the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says U.S. production will decline next year, who knows?

...As an article last month in The New York Times observed: “Just as it seemed that the world was running on fumes, giant oil fields were discovered off the coasts of Brazil and Africa, and Canadian oil sands projects expanded so fast, they now provide North America with more oil than Saudi Arabia. In addition, the United States has increased domestic oil production for the first time in a generation.” Further still: “Another wave of natural gas drilling has taken off in shale rock fields across the United States, and more shale gas drilling is just beginning in Europe and Asia.”

...For natural gas, the U.S. has the four largest fields in the world: the Haynesville field in Louisiana (with production up by 77 per cent in 2009); the Fayetteville field in Arkansas and the Marcellus field in Pennsylvania (both with production up by 50 per cent); and the Barnett field in Texas and Oklahoma (with production up by double-digit increases). The EIA reports that proven U.S. reserves of natural gas increased last year by 11 per cent to 284 trillion cubic feet – the highest level since 1971.

Beyond shale oil and shale gas, there’s the awesome energy promise of methane hydrates, frozen crystals of water and gas that lie beneath the northern permafrost and beneath oceans floors around the world in quantities that boggle the imagination.

“Assuming 1 per cent recovery,” the U.S. Geological Survey says, “these deposits [in U.S. territory] could meet the natural gas needs of the country (at current rates of consumption) for 100 years.” _Globe&Mail

Gas producers are scurrying to find ways to export gas to cold, hungry customers in Asia and Europe. LNG -- liquified natural gas -- is one approach which is being developed for the export market. GTL -- gas to liquids -- is another approach that is likely to be developed inside the US within the next 10 years. Both approaches will allow for easier entry into the lucrative export markets. The GTL approach will also -- if economical -- allow gas to be converted into liquid fuels at a profit. That should help reduce North American dependency on overseas oil, once developed.

Cross-posted to Al Fin

Sustainable Fossil Fuels?

We introduced Mark Jaccard in the previous posting. The Vancouver-based economist has written a book-length analysis of the global energy dilemma entitled Sustainable Fossil Fuels: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy. In the book, Jaccard takes a close look at the range of alternative energy sources for powering the world in the 21st century, and comes to some interesting and perhaps unconventional conclusions. A few paragraphs from Chapter 5 are excerpted below giving some assessments of some world energy resources.

The world coal resource is estimated at over 7 trillion tonnes or 200,000 EJ, of which 80% is hard coal. Over half of this is concentrated in the countries of the former Soviet Union, especially Russia. North America, Western Europe and China also have significant resources.

Coal reserves are substantial compared to our current use rate. If coal consumption continued at its current rate of 100 EJ per year reserves might last 210 years and the estimated resource 2,000 years. These long timeframes would decline of course if the exploitation rate were to increase or if not all of the resource were ever to become technologically or economically accessible. In my current trends scenario (table 2.1 in chapter 2), annual coal production increases six-fold.

...The World Energy Assessment provides an estimate of unconventional oil reserves as 5,000 EJ and the total unconventional resource as 20,000 EJ.* Together, the estimated conventional and unconventional oil resources are 11,000 GJ for reserves within a total resource base of 32,000 EJ. If global oil consumption continued at its current annual rate of 163 GJ, currently estimated reserves would last sixty-seven years and the estimated resource 200 years.

...Combining conventional and unconventional gas yields total gas reserves of 15,000 EJ and a total gas resource of 49,500 EJ. If global natural gas consumption continued at its current annual rate of 95 EJ, reserves would last 160 years and the resource 520. _ SustainableFossilFuels Chap 5

There is a great deal more to the book than a few resource assessments -- which the author handles with considerably more sophistication than the few isolated excerpts above might suggest.

Sustainable Fossil Fuels Chap 5 Jaccard
We are being threatened by doomers of all sorts with a near-term apocalypse via cataclysmic resource scarcity. Their pornographic portrayals of doom adorn most print and electronic media outlets on a regular basis. And yet these modern-day predictions of doom are not really different than the badly failed predictions of doom from the 1960s and 1970s. And those 20th century predictions of doom were little different from similar predictions from the 1800s and 1700s. And so it goes, backward through time. The apocalyptic instincts of humans-with-time-on-their-hands left their mark extending well back into the early historical periods.

Fortunately, thinkers such as Jaccard are willing to publish well-reasoned and documented assessments which contradict the messages of doom that buffet us about on a daily basis.

It is likely that even in a future of abundant fusion energy, home-scale molecular nano-fabs, and inter-stellar colonisation based upon hyper-space drives -- even then there will be doomsayers who will be virtually indistinguishable from the modern prophets of doom.

Those of us with things to accomplish will pay them all the attention they are due, in the course of doing what we must.

"Crude Oil Itself Has Already Peaked!"

...crude oil itself has already peaked – at least five times since 1950, Prof. Boyce says – without beginning to approach the demise of oil anticipated by peak oil theory’s famous Bell curve. Indeed, crude oil reserves have doubled roughly every 15 years since 1850 and the world now has more proven reserves than it has ever had in the ensuing 150 years. _CTV

Crude oil may just peak a few more times before humans discard oil in favour of better sources of energy. Oil production is responsive to price signals, although oil producers will watch the price curves closely, to be sure that a rise in prices will last long enough to justify a ramp-up in production. The ephemeral rise in oil prices in the summer of 2008 clearly did not last long enough to justify a full-scale build-up in production.

THERE is only one rule when it comes to the availability of oil: experts are always convinced it will run out – but it never seems to. Brent crude is now at close to $75 a barrel, which is high but hardly excessively so by historical standards....

But one thing is clear: the peak oil theorists, who constantly predict that prices are about to explode, keep on getting it wrong but are never sufficiently held to account by a gullible media. As Mark Perry, a professor at the University of Michigan, reminds us, it was five years ago that Houston-based Matthew Simmons (a leading peak oil man) and the unusually sensible New York Times columnist John Tierney bet $5,000 on the price of oil. The wager was based on the average daily price for 2010, adjusted for inflation. If the inflation-adjusted oil price averages $200 or more, Simmons wins $10,000, and if the average price this year is less than $200, Tierney wins. As Perry points out, average oil prices this year won't even be anywhere close to $100, and will probably average less than $70, far below the $200 price predicted by Simmons. Only a total catastrophe would ensure the price would average $330 per barrel for the rest of 2010 – which is what would be needed for Simmons to win his bet. He will have to hand the cash over and eat humble pie. _CityAM

Matt Simmons is just one of the grifters who has latched on to the gullible mass of believers in Peak Oil Doom. Losing $5,000 in a bet is unlikely to discourage Matt, since he probably cons a lot more than that from his credulous disciples every week.

If you are a doomer, you have to ask yourself the question: "If I am wrong about this doom business, how much am I hurting myself, my family, and our future prospects for happiness and prosperity?" Most doomers just get off on the doom, and don't really care about the opportunity costs. Some of them want to starve the world of energy, so that the human population will be reduced by 50% to 90% from its current numbers (the "dieoff"). But there are likely to be some doomers who eventually get tired of the echo choirs, the genocidal undertones, and the role-playing.

The notion that the world is approaching "Peak Oil" is just not supported by the facts. We may still be getting closer to a peak, but the world has far more untapped oil than anyone could have imagined 10 years ago. _StreetAuthority

There is nothing new about the idea of an energy crisis. Back in Elizabethan times, England suffered from "peak wood." There have been peaks in production -- multiple peaks -- for anything that humans have ever used for energy. More peaks will certainly come and go. But the only form of "peak energy" that could be semi-permanent, is the type of "peak energy" that has come to North Korea -- "political peak energy."

In America, insightful persons might well ask: "Who needs peak oil when we've got Obama Pelosi?" They are referring to the energy starvation policies of the Obama Pelosi regime, which intends to bankrupt coal and oil companies -- and would like to do the same to gas and nuclear companies, if they could devise the proper excuse.

Energy is the life's blood of an advanced society. Persons who intentionally set about to disrupt or shut down a society's energy supply, are essentially committing genocide. Voters should consider that when they go to the polls.

More on Brian Wang's Winning Energy Bet w/ Michael Dittmar

Brian Wang discusses his winning bet with Dittmar for world uranium production in 2009. Dittmar not only lost to Brian, but he lost big in terms of percentage prediction error.

The Oil Drum picked up on Brian's winning bet, and attempted to downplay the meaning of Brian's win. Although The Oil Drum provides some useful articles by experts such as "Heading Out", and helpful links to energy articles in The Drumbeat, the website also often displays a quasi-religious faith in "peak oil" and "peak energy."

Brian provides a counter-point to Gail the Actuary's somewhat slanted piece, on his own blog and in comments at The Oil Drum.

The facts are quite important, since whether or not the world embarks upon "a nuclear renaissance" will have a lot to do with whether the developed world can readily ride out the transition from fossil fuel dependency to more sustainable and clean long-term energies. Energy is the life-blood of a modern civilisation. Access to energy is vital to all societies -- but particularly to advanced societies which are headed up a steep technological curve.

In another posting, Brian looks at the peak oil bet between doomer Matt Simmons and John Tierney at the NYT. Doomers clearly have "doom on the brain", and cannot see the world except through "doom-tinted" lenses.

Not So Fast, Peak Oil

Iraqi oil production to delay Peak Oil by ten years or longer

Endless Oil
Technology, politics, and lower demand will yield a bumper crop of crude

"Only about 32% of the oil [in reserves] is produced," says Val Brock, Shell's head of business development for enhanced oil recovery. Shell estimates 300 billion barrels and maybe more might be squeezed out of existing fields, much of it once thought beyond retrieval. Peter Jackson, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' London-based senior director for oil industry activity, has reviewed data from the world's biggest fields. His conclusion: 60% of their reserves remain available.

The fact that there's still oil for the taking is driving Shell and other majors to come up with new technologies, which are expensive to develop but worth it when crude is riding high. While the price has fallen considerably from the peak of $147 per barrel in 2008, it is still far above what many oilmen expected a few years ago. "You will see companies going into the deep water, going into the arctic, using the best technology," says Maugeri, who sees the oil industry as a dynamic system that responds rapidly to changes in the economic and political environment.

Even if the new technologies add just a few percentage points to the recovery rate, such gains add years to global supply and boost the industry's profits. So the technology of coaxing oil out of the ground is constantly improving. Heating up heavy oil, as at Schoonebeek, is one new trick. Companies can add heavy polymers to the water they blast into a production site to push more oil out; the polymers add weight to the water and increase the pressure on deposits. (Shell is trying such technology on the Marmul field in Oman.) Another tactic is to inject soap into the ground to break the surface tension that makes leftover oil cling to the rock.

Simple methods can help mature oil fields produce more and even uncover bigger reserves than imagined. A study of fields in Indonesia by IHS CERA found that it wasn't uncommon for them to produce more than double initial estimates. Petroleum engineers help the fields live longer just by drilling new wells or installing better pumps. "As a field ages, the operators learn more...that allows them to tweak their operations," explains Leta K. Smith, a Houston-based analyst for IHS CERA.

Sharp falls in production can be arrested. Output at Samotlor, Russia's largest field, was plummeting in the late 1990s. The field's owner, TNK-BP, formed in 2003, has since managed to boost production by a third. Adjusting the placement of the pumps in the wells yielded big gains, while three-dimensional seismic technology gave a better glimpse of the oil-bearing structures under the ground. _BusinessWeek

Squeezing more oil out of the ground

PDF Peak Oil Realities PDF

It takes time, work, intelligence, and an open-minded pursuit of truth, to break through the scams and the garbage to the most likely realities beneath. Most people are not equipped. But for those who are, some potential profit plays remain.

Wind Kite Power, Hot Air Balloon Power, More

This Rotokite wind generator is an interesting variation on the wind power theme. It has much in common with this new hot air balloon power generating scheme. Both methods utilise natural forces to provide a slow cyclic up and down movement over significant distances, like two stroke engines with a very long stroke.

The sun only provides about 6 hours of useful energy per day, and the wind is quite unpredictable. The best way to make use of solar and wind currently, is by either grid intertie or off-grid, on a small to medium scale. For grid intertie, you will need to negotiate with the utility. For off-grid, you will need your own method of power storage, for sunless, windless periods of time. Off-grid applications will need to be extremely energy efficient, preferably making maximum use of passive solar design and insulation. Power use and state of energy storage will need to be metered in real time, to prevent excessive depletion of power storage. A lot of trouble, sure. But for some it is worth it.

For large scale "modern" society, attached to utility power, the choices are clear: increase power generation and upgrade the transmission networks. Failure to do either or both will result in energy starvation and increasingly serious power failures on a wide scale. Addicted to power, modern societies will not function well without plentiful power supplies.

We understand that the narcissist-elect is inexperienced, unqualified, and incompetent. But is he completely unintelligent, so unintelligent as to be unaware of the problem? Is he as stupid as Boxer and Pelosi? We will soon see.

Natural Gas Supply in the US Jumps

"Peak Energy" doomsters have suffered numerous setbacks recently, with the drop in oil prices from near $150 a barrel in July to around $115 a barrel for the past weeks. Recent boosts in estimated US supplies of natural gas are another thorn in the side of would-be energy apocalyptics. Improved energy recovery technologies are making deposits of oil and gas more recoverable, and very economic at today's energy prices.

U.S. gas production is up 9% this year - a rate of increase not seen since 1984 - with most of that gain coming from natural-gas shale, particularly the Barnett Shale, a deposit that now produces 7% of the country’s gas supply. Indeed, there could be as much as 842 trillion cubic feet of retrievable gas in shale deposits throughout the United States alone, according to Navigant Consulting. That would support the current level of U.S. consumption for about 40 years....Shale beds are a major part of the story. The Barnett - with reserves of 2.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and as much as 30 trillion cubic feet of natural gas resources - was the first shale field to undergo major development, and has seen output increase tenfold since 2001. It’s just one of at least 24 shale beds in North America. The Haynesville in Louisiana and the Marcellus in Appalachia may be even bigger, but will require further development and won’t come online for another two to five years.

The vast potential of fields like these has only been unlocked recently with advances in the technology of horizontal drilling hydraulic fracturing. Horizontal drilling, or slant drilling, allows producers to drill laterally beneath cities and neighborhoods, and hydraulic fracturing is simply a method by which water is pumped into the rock to break the sediment and release the gas. _SeekingAlpha

Doomsday has become an obsession -- a quasi-religion -- for legions of people with nothing important to do with their time or lives. Flailing about for a cause, these unfortunates have seized upon Y2K, Global Warming Catastrophe, Peak Oil, Overpopulation, and any number of other dubious doomsdays. All in the futile quest for a sense self-importance.

Typical loser political activist mentality. Too bad they never acquired any useful skills, or they may have been able to contribute to a productive cause.

US Natural Gas Reserves Doubled! in New Study

It seems that the US EIA and other official estimators of US natural gas reserves have badly underestimated the total US capacity. If a new study by the American Clean Skies Foundation is accurate, the US has enough natural gas reserves to last 100 years!

Aubrey K. McClendon, chairman of ACSF and chairman and CEO of Chesapeake Energy Corporation. "New technologies have allowed the rapid emergence of gas shales as a major energy source, representing a truly transformative event for U.S. energy supplies. American producers can clearly supply enough natural gas to meet today's uses and become an economical source of transportation fuel in the form of CNG or greater supplies of electricity for plug-in hybrids for generations to come."

"The assessments and estimates on natural gas supply are very impressive and have, frankly, caught industry forecasters off guard," shared Rick Smead, one of the study's co-authors and overall project manager for NCI. The study found that while all three unconventional gas sources have increased production over the past decade, natural gas production from shale formations is growing exponentially, increasing from 0.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)/year of production in 1998 to 1.05 Tcf/year in 2007, a 203 percent increase. "The extent of this ramp-up has not been fully captured by many reserve estimators," said Smead, "probably because their emergence has been too rapid for existing models to capture accurately."

There are approximately 22 shale basins located onshore in more than 20 states in the U.S. including Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York and Michigan.

..."Recent technological innovation has transformed the natural gas exploration and production industry, particularly as it pertains to shale," said Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock III, a Fellow in Energy Studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and a professor of economics at Rice University, also a co-author of the NCI report. "The findings in this study indicate significant potential for expanded use of domestically produced natural gas for many purposes, including power generation and even transportation fuel for many years to come." _NextEnergyNews

Newer technologies for converting difficult-to-access coal beds into natural gas fields, and advanced conversion methods for coal-to-gas (CTG) will also expand natural gas supplies far beyond conventional estimates.

To top it off, the up and coming field of biomass renewable natural gas will knock the block off "peak gasers" for the foreseeable future, once production is scaled up.

It may be more fun for the jokers at the oil drum site and the other peak oil sites, to dwell on doom and gloom. If that is what gets them to the promised land, then all power to them. But as for me and most intelligent, energetic, and productive-minded folks I know, it's better to solve problems instead of whining about them.

France, Japan, US Collaborate on Reactor Design

Japan, France, and the US are expanding cooperation on the Sodium Cooled Fast Reactor Prototype (SFR). The SCFR is among the projects in the Gen IV Reactor Forum.

The sodium-cooled fast reactor uses liquid sodium to transfer heat to a working fluid for power generation. The SFR is designed for management of high-level wastes and, in particular, management of plutonium and other actinides (the radioactive elements that lie between actinium and lawrencium on the periodic table, with atomic numbers 89 - 103).

Important safety features of the system include a long thermal response time, a large margin to coolant boiling, a primary system that operates near atmospheric pressure, and intermediate sodium system between the radioactive sodium in the primary system and the power conversion system. Water/steam and carbon-dioxide are being considered as the working fluids for the power conversion system in order to achieve high-level performances in thermal efficiency, safety and reliability.

...The SFR’s fast spectrum makes it possible to use available fissile and fertile materials (including depleted uranium) considerably more efficiently than thermal spectrum reactors with once-through fuel cycles.

The envisaged SFR capability to efficiently and nearly completely consume trans-uranium as fuel would reduce the actinide loadings in the high-level radioactive waste it produces, according to a summary of the technology by the GIF. Such reductions would bring benefits in the radioactive waste disposal requirements associated with the system and enhance its non-proliferation attributes. Reducing the capital cost and improving passive safety, especially under transient conditions, are the major challenges for the SFR system.___Green Car Congress

Gen-IV reactors will be safer and more reliable--and produce less dangerous waste products--than conventional nuclear fission generators currently used. The SFR appears to have important advantages over other Gen-IV designs.

The three nation collaboration aims to standardise reactor and power plant design, and to facilitate conversion of older facilities to newer SFR plants.

Forget Peak Oil: The Problem is Peak Manpower

The most serious shortage facing the developed world is the shortage of skilled and talented workforce participants.

While Zay looks for executives and top-level managers, the entire energy industry – from welders, tank builders, and roughnecks to petroleum engineers, nuclear engineers, and technicians – is strapped for talent. And the problems are likely to get substantially worse before they get better. Nor is the labor shortage limited to the U.S. and the hydrocarbon sector. Rather, it is worldwide, and being felt in industries ranging from coal mining to nuclear power. The reasons for the labor crunch are many: an aging workforce, lagging student interest in engineering, a lack of interest in blue-collar jobs like welding, and perhaps most important, the strong commodity prices that have led to a boom in energy projects of all types.

...The dearth of skilled workers can be seen by looking at the Gulf Coast. “There is a shortage of several thousand skilled laborers for the offshore industry,” says Bill French, a three-decade veteran of the oil industry and an executive search director for the recruiting firm World Wide Worker. French says that the entire coast is feeling the pinch. All of the offshore industries need welders, not just those who cater to the energy sector. “Welders are making twice as much as they were five years ago,” says French. “It’s like a merry go-round, with workers going across the street for 50 more cents [an hour]…everybody needs welders.”

Michael Harter, chairman of the Tulsa Welding School, the nation’s largest, says demand for his students has never been greater. “I have three to ten job opportunities for every student that leaves us,” he said. Demand is so great that Harter has nearly doubled the size of his classes. Five years ago, the school, which begins a new class every three weeks, would have 60 students. Now, those classes may have 100. And Harter doesn’t see demand slowing down any time soon. “There are so many welders who are already between 55 and 65 and who are retiring. They are retiring as fast or faster than new welders are coming into the job pool.”

The situations for blue-collar workers is matched by that for white-collar professionals. For instance, engineers are in short supply in the North Sea, where Robert Rapier works for one of the supermajors. Rapier, who writes the R-Squared Energy Blog and requested anonymity for his company, says the demand for engineers is “insatiable,” and that he has “posted jobs that literally go unfilled. Supply and demand is out of balance, so the supply side – the manpower – can command high premiums. We have started recruiting a lot in Iran and India.”

Source

Skilled manpower shortages are indeed worldwide, from Hong Kong, to India, to Canada, to large sections of the US.

We already have an active bidding war for top talent in the energy sector. This competition for skilled workers will grow more heated, as experienced workers leave the workforce through retirement.

Uranium from Seawater--Peak Uranium Most Unlikely for next 5,000 Years!

Brian Wang posted a promising look at the prospects of mining uranium oxide from seawater. How much uranium is in seawater compared to expected uranium reserves on land?

It is estimated that there is 4.7 million tonnes of uranium ore reserves (economically mineable) known to exist, while 35 million tonnes are classed as mineral resources (reasonable prospects for eventual economic extraction).[32] An additional 4.6 billion tonnes of uranium are estimated to be in sea water (Japanese scientists in the 1980s proved that extraction of uranium from sea water using ion exchangers was feasible).[33][34]

Wikipedia

Brian estimates that the value of uranium in seawater at today's prices may approach US $720 trillion!

Uranium oxide would be retrieved from seawater with irradiated polymer (eg polyethylene) woven into netting, and moored in seawater for app. 60 days to absorb uranium. The netting would be retrieved, the uranium would be removed from the netting, the netting replaced in the sea, with the polymer absorbent re-used multiple times similar to fish nets.

Methods for improved harvesting of uranium from seawater suggested by Brian:

1. Functionalize an algae bloom to concentrate Uranium
See the work of Matt Francis at Berkeley for functionalizing virus shells and microbes for anti-cancer or for solar power. Many others are trying to engineer microbes using synthetic biology.

The goal would be to increase the concentration of Uranium from 3 parts per billion to 300 parts per million. The higher concentration allows regular methods of Uranium mining to take over. It is an increase of 100,000 times....

2. Nanomembrane Filtering
Nanomembrane filtering is starting to be used for desalinization of water at 100,000 gallons per day using a 6 inch diameter membrane.
If one could filter 1 billion gallons per day then there would be $1.92 million/day worth of Uranium. (3 mg per ton of water. 1 billion gallons is 4 million tons. 12,000 kg of Uranium in 1 billion gallons) Ten thousand of the 6 inch diameter nanomembrane enabled filtration pipes would be needed.

Advanced Nanotechnology

Here is an abstract from one of the most active Japanese research groups:

The total amount of uranium dissolved in seawater at a uniform concentration of 3 mg U/m3 in the world's oceans is 4.5 billion tons. An adsorption method using polymeric adsorbents capable of specifically recovering uranium from seawater is reported to be economically feasible. A uranium-specific nonwoven fabric was used as the adsorbent packed in an adsorption cage 16 m2 in cross-sectional area and 16 cm in height. We submerged three adsorption cages in the Pacific Ocean at a depth of 20 m at 7 km offshore of Japan. The three adsorption cages consisted of stacks of 52 000 sheets of the uranium-specific non-woven fabric with a total mass of 350 kg. The total amount of uranium recovered by the nonwoven fabric was >1 kg in terms of yellow cake during a total submersion time of 240 days in the ocean.

Source

More here.


Seawater contains many thousands of years worth of uranium at current usage. No one actually believes that human civilisation will still be based upon nuclear fission and fossil fuels one thousand years from now. Fossil fuels will still be around then, but will be considered too dirty, expensive, and valuable to burn for fuel. Nuclear fission will still be around if needed--certainly there is plenty of uranium and thorium--and may be used in particular applications where the fuel available makes clean fission more practical.

Most tech forecasters expect nuclear fusion to be widely available for large scale power generation within the next one thousand years--if not the next one hundred years. We will not need but a fraction of the available uranium and thorium over the long run.

Of course, that prediction is based upon the continuation of western civilisation--or perhaps other successor civilisations just as friendly to scientific/technological research and personal/economic freedoms currently guaranteed by the west. A surrender to reactionary religious fanatics or ideologues (luddites) would introduce a significant element of pessimism into the forecast.

Recent pessimistic "peak oil" pronouncements have been taken far too seriously by the many uninformed persons who attempt to follow trends. A recent declaration that peak oil occurred in 2006, was particularly ludicrous--since it was based upon selective production figures without taking into account reserves or various factors that could influence their production data. Too much peak oil "research"--like much of climate change research--is infested by ideologues who assume the result and carefully craft data to fit that result.

The important thing is to understand that it is resource prices--and how society reacts to price changes--that matter in the long run. It is natural for modern societies to begin to move from more expensive (particularly if dirtier like fossil fuels) to more economical and sustainable technologies. That is basic economics and will occur over time regardless of any "Kyoto" or other treaties or regulatory schemes.

For those of us interested in the next level, the singularity, or just a very promising future, it is always important to watch important trends, while always looking a little farther ahead.
Previously published at Al Fin.

Peak Uranium--As Overblown as Peak Oil?

Recent concerns over CAGW have led many planners--and even environmentalists--to suggest that increased use of nuclear power may reduce CO2 dumping into the atmosphere. But many anti-nuclear activists are claiming that there is a shortage of uranium which prevents any large scale nuclear energy alternatives. What is the reality?

Uranium is a common mineral--as plentiful as tin.

Uranium prices reached an all-time low in 2001, costing US$7/lb, but have since rebounded strongly. As of January 2007, uranium sells at US$72/lb and the price is rising fast. This is the highest price (adjusted for inflation et cetera) in 25 years [2]. The higher price has spurred new prospecting and reopening of old mines. Cameco and Rio Tinto Group are the top two producing companies (with 20% of the production each), followed by Areva (12%), BHP Billiton (9%) and Kazatomprom (9%).

Source
Deposits of uranium lie primarily in Canada, Australia, the US, South Africa, and countries of the former USSR. There is tremendous flexibility in the production of uranium, depending on pricing and political/regulatory conditions. Currently Canada and Australia are the world's major producers, but producers in the third world are gearing up for higher production with Chinese and Russian backing.


Realistically, "Peak Uranium", like "Peak Oil", is an almost meaningless term. Better terminology would refer to pricing of these commodities--which reflects supply, demand, and political/regulatory factors. Although some people have seized upon this report that suggests an impending bottleneck of uranium supplies for the US, more informed individuals with a broader perspective of commodities markets will understand that markets find a way--even when ivory tower academics can only see government action as a solution.

The important thing is to assure that government regulatory agencies do not make it impossible for the market to function.

Oil Exploration from the Sky: Fast and Wide

As time goes by, better and better methods for finding mineral wealth, including oil, will be developed. This TechReview article reports on a new method of aerial search for oil reserves:

A new airborne technology for mapping oil fields could locate new oil reserves by drastically cutting survey costs, and help companies identify untapped oil within new reserves.

Las Vegas, NV-based startup eField Exploration recently completed a survey of existing oil fields in Texas in which it revealed extensions of these fields into areas that traditional methods did not spot, according to company president Ed Johnson. Drilling to confirm the findings will likely begin soon, he says.

The new method uses existing electromagnetic imaging technologies in a novel airborne system that can quickly cover large areas, thus reducing costs. It also potentially reduces the environmental impact of exploration by eliminating the need to bulldoze wide roads for the heavy equipment used in seismic surveys.

According to Dan Burns, a research scientist in MIT's earth resources laboratory, while seismic surveys are currently by far the most common method of imaging oil fields, electromagnetic (EM) imaging is gaining in popularity because it is more reliable. Electromagnetic imaging is a more direct way to detect oil than seismic surveys, since it can measure differences between oil and water, something seismic methods can't do. "There's clearly a move more and more toward electromagnetics," Burns says. "In general, seismic techniques are responding to differences in the rocks themselves, as opposed to fluids, whereas EM methods are much more sensitive to fluids."

.....Because their method reduces costs, eField is also exploring another potential benefit: rapidly scouting for potential oil deposits in new areas or in areas that have already been mapped but with inadequate methods due to high costs. By quickly covering large areas (the Texas survey took in 3,100 miles) and generating maps in weeks instead of months, the new airborne technology can cut costs per "line mile" for large areas to about $100, Johnson says, rather than the hundreds of thousands of dollars per mile he says seismic surveys cost.

Source.

A person almost needs to be totally oblivious to the real world, to believe that most of the world's oil reserves have already been located, much less extracted. Fixation on earth-changing catastrophes is a natural stage in human development, but persons who get stuck in that fixation can easily lose touch with reality. This is true for religious apocalyptics as well as ideological apocalyptics.

There is plenty of room in the real world for those who want to solve problems.