Tuesday, October 02, 2012

Are Oil Prices on the Skids?

Slowing economic growth in Europe, the US, and China, are causing more people to understand the importance of the demand side in oil pricing.
Weak global growth is slamming oil prices, sending them nearly 10 percent lower in less than two weeks, with more declines likely.... "You're seeing it in the streets, in Greece and in Spain, and it's just a telling sign of how bad the economy is. If you see how the world is so interconnected, a slowdown in Europe is going to affect both China and the U.S., and those are the type of things that are affecting the price of oil." _Oil Prices Likely to Slide Further

There is a slow spread of global economic gloom sentiment which is slowly rising from the subconscious into the more conscious levels of the minds of analysts.

Many analysts -- who have been expecting rapid rises in oil prices exceeding the famous 2008 runup in oil prices -- still seem unaware of how strongly the 2007 - 2008 runup in oil prices was affected by a global economic bubble.
.... during the 2004-2007 global economy growth surge, it was still possible to have annual growth rates of world oil demand near 2 percent, another rearview mirror item in global energy history. Betting on if, rather than when world oil demand can again rise by even one half of that Belle Epoque rate, that is 1 percent or about 890 000 barrels per day in a 12-month period, is integrated in oil market trading as a background bet, still today.

Despite that, both the IEA and EIA, since 2008, have on multiple occasions been forced to backtrack on their growth forecasts, always trimming their estimates of global oil demand growth going forward. _MacKillop: Oil's New Floor Price: $75

At this time, there is no shortage of oil supplies. That is unlikely to change in the near to intermediate future, unless political tensions in the middle east flare up out of control.

It is within Russia's power to cause such a violent flare-up -- either overtly or covertly -- but at this time it does not seem to be in Russia's best interest. If the price of oil falls too low, however -- putting a severe strain on the corrupt Russian government's budget -- all bets may be off.



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