Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Global Oil Production Hits Yet Another New Peak

Peak oil prognosticators, including Ken Deffeyes and the late Matt Simmons and King Hubbert, continue running up a long string of failed predictions for the global peak in oil production. It is almost as if they all suffered from severe conceptual deficits in their thought processes.....


...the peak oil theorists, if not wrong in the long term, seem to have been premature in warning that the summit for production was upon us. In 2009, for instance, one forecast for global oil production via The Oil Drum warned that output was set to fall by more than two million barrels a year. A decade ago, geologist Ken Deffeyes’ widely read book Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage opened by stating that “global oil production will probably reach a peak sometime during this decade.” The 2009 edition of the book makes the same forecast.

Deffeyes is hardly alone in warning that the end is near for raising global oil production, as a sampling of the many book titles in recent years on the peak oil subject remind: The Party’s Over, The End of Oil, and Profit from the Peak, for instance.

There is a peak out there somewhere, of course. Production for every commodity with a finite supply inevitably reaches a crest. The question, of course, is when? Estimating the date of the apex is problematic for several reasons. Technology, for instance, can change the analysis. If you can make cars more energy efficient, that’s the equivalent of finding more oil, all else equal. That leaves us with the troublesome task of predicting what technology will bring in terms of energy savings in the years ahead. _WallStreetPit


Meanwhile, China is ramping up shale exploration and technology development, in preparation for the coming boom in Chinese shale oil & gas, and GTL, along with combined GTL and CTL.

Argentina is likewise gearing up to take advantage of the unconventional hydrocarbon bonanza.

The massive global supplies of unconventional hydrocarbons are waiting only for improved technologies of catalytic conversion to high quality chemicals, fuels, polymers, etc. Perhaps the coming boom in space mining of platinum and other precious metals will have a secondary effect on the eventual boom in GTL, CTL, BTL, KTL, BitTL, GHTL, and other XTL technologies? Particularly with the development of gen IV high temperature gas cooled modular nuclear reactors, which will send the myth of EROEI to the dustbin of history.

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Blogger Whirlwind22 said...


It sounds like the the American Peak Oil study group is having a conference soo do you follow them?

4:31 PM  
Blogger al fin said...

The truth is far more interesting than that.

Of course, there never was a peak oil doomer worth the name who didn't feel that he was the only one in possession of secret knowledge.

The fact that oil traders tend to have already priced everything the doomers know and a lot more into the markets always seems to have escaped them.

How many times do these jokers have to be wrong before people stop buying their books?


6:50 PM  

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