Monday, December 26, 2011

Did Santa Forget to Bring Peak Oil for Christmas Yet Again?

But didn’t world oil production peak in 2006, as the International Energy Agency concluded probably occurred? Doesn’t this condemn the world to fighting more future wars over dwindling petroleum resources? No....“experts” have been repeatedly predicting the depletion of the world’s oil reserves since the late 1800s, but it never seems to happen. New technologies and periodic higher prices make previously uneconomic deposits viable—such as the tar sands and shale oil that have recently become economic—thus sustaining world production. _EurasiaReview
In fact, global oil reserves continue to rise, year on year. This is largely from improvements in oil extraction technologies, which are reviving "tired old oil wells," convincing them to produce the remaining 70% to 80% of their oil which has remained underground. But giant new oil fields have been discovered -- mostly under the seas. And as oil prices edge upwards due to largely political factors, a massive deluge of synthetic hydrocarbon fuels from CTL and GTL grow ever more affordable.

Peak oil grifters and con-men have been predicting the onset of peak oil and the collapse of global civilisation for roughly a century now. More astoundingly, peak oil drones are claiming that "peak oil actually happened in 2005 (!)", although civilisation failed to collapse -- in a most unobliging fashion.

But don't give up, faithful disciples and cultists of peak oil doom. Eventually, either civilisation will collapse -- and you can claim it was from peak oil -- or you will be able to lay down this burden of trust and move on to the non-corporeal level.

A quick glance at popular doomer sites will confirm that doomers are unwilling (or unable) to let go of their pet doom -- even for Christmas! Peak oil doom shared the Christmas table of every true-blue doomer worth his salt, and that calls for another round of libation.

Speaking of libation, we should always remind ourselves that ethanol is for consumption by humans, not by engines. Butanol is a far superior fuel for ICEs. If you must use ethanol for energy production, consider fuel cells.



Blogger Whirlwind22 said...

But what about the growing demand from countries like China and India? If the doomers where right and peak oil did occur in 2005 would our civilization have collapse by now?

10:54 PM  
Blogger al fin said...

The problem is all the assumptions one has to make when predicting the future.

Take a look at the famous Hubbert curve, or the curve. Look at the predicted response to peak oil.

These predictions are already falsified for 2005 peak oil. The lame attempt to attribute all of the world's financial and other problems to "peak oil" is what one would expect from a cult that cannot face its own failures and contradictions.

7:34 AM  
Blogger Whirlwind22 said...

Here is a video I found on the Bakken field and how EROEI matters and such.

If EROEI matters so much how come you never hear it in the mainstream press?

7:43 AM  
Blogger al fin said...

If you have to depend on the mainstream press for your ideas, you are in a bad way.

As for EROEI, I agree that most peak oilers are probably too uninformed to have heard of using process heat from nuclear reactors -- particularly from gas cooled reactors -- in order to produce liquid hydrocarbons from:

Gas to liquids (GTL)
Coal to liquids (GTL)
Enhanced recovery of shale oil
Enhanced recovery of conventional oil in "depleted" fields (with over 60% of oil in place remaining)

Such process heat can also be used in the production of fertilisers, chemicals, a wide range of materials including plastics, etc.

With recycling of nuclear fuels, there is essentially no limit to the available process heat.

Using advanced gen III and gen IV factory-produced small nuclear reactors that can be located virtually anywhere, costs and installations are scalable and modular.

Peak oil cultists are not widely read outside the circle jerk.

11:39 AM  

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