Tuesday, September 20, 2011

EIA Projects 53% Growth Global Energy Consumption 2008-2035

All Images via USEIA
The USEIA projects a significant growth in world energy consumption between the year 2008 and the year 2035 (via GCC). The growth will come from a wide range of sources -- particularly coal, unconventional gas, and bitumens. The chart above reveals the expected growth in natural gas production in China, Canada, and the US, over the projected time period.
The chart above compares the expected energy consumption by fuel. All forms of fuel consumption are expected to rise.
According to EIA projections, growth in biofuel production is expected to keep pace with growth in oil sands production.
Unconventionals slowly make up a larger proportion of total fuels production, according to the EIA.
Nuclear energy is expected to recover from the current attitude of anti-nuclear green hysteria.

Summary of EIA report from Green Car Congress:
China and India lead the growth in world demand for energy in the future. The economies of China and India were among those least affected by the worldwide recession. They continue to lead world economic growth and energy demand growth in the Reference case. In 2008, China and India combined accounted for 21% of total world energy consumption. With strong economic growth in both countries over the projection period, their combined energy use more than doubles by 2035, when they account for 31% of world energy use in the IEO2011 Reference case. In 2035, China’s energy demand is 68% higher than US energy demand.

Renewable energy is projected to be the fastest growing source of primary energy over the next 25 years, but fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy. Renewable energy consumption increases by 2.8% per year and the renewable share of total energy use increases from 10% in 2008 to 15% in 2035 in the Reference case. Fossil fuels, however, continue to supply much of the energy used worldwide throughout the projection, and still account for 78% of world energy use in 2035.

While the Reference case projections reflect current laws and policies as of the start of 2011, past experience suggests that renewable energy deployment is often significantly affected by policy changes.

Natural gas has the fastest growth rate among the fossil fuels over the 2008 to 2035 projection period. World natural gas consumption increases 1.6% per year, from 111 trillion cubic feet in 2008 to 169 trillion cubic feet in 2035. Unconventional natural gas (tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane) supplies increase substantially in the IEO2011 Reference case—especially from the United States, but also from Canada and China.

Other report highlights include:

From 2008 to 2035, total world energy consumption rises by an average annual 1.6% in the IEO2011 Reference case. Strong economic growth among the non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) nations drives the increase. Non-OECD energy use increases by 2.3 percent per year; in the OECD countries energy use grows by only 0.6 percent per year.

Petroleum and other liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, though projected higher oil prices erode their share of total energy use from 34 percent in 2008 to 29 percent in 2035.

Projected petroleum consumption and prices are very sensitive to both supply and demand conditions. Higher economic growth in developing countries coupled with reduced supply from key exporting countries result in a High Oil Price case in which real oil prices exceed $169 per barrel by 2020 and approach $200 per barrel by 2035.

Conversely, lower economic growth in developing countries coupled with increased supplies from key exporting countries result in a Low Oil Price case in which real oil prices fall to about $55 per barrel in 2015 and then gradually decline to $50 per barrel after 2030 where they remain through 2035.

World coal consumption increases from 139 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 209 quadrillion Btu in 2035, at an average annual rate of 1.5% in the IEO2011 Reference case. In the absence of policies or legislation that would limit the growth of coal use, China and, to a lesser extent, India and the other nations of non-OECD Asia consume coal in place of more expensive fuels. China alone accounts for 76% of the projected net increase in world coal use, and India and the rest of non-OECD Asia account for another 19% of the increase.

Electricity is the world’s fastest-growing form of end-use energy consumption in the Reference case, as it has been for the past several decades. Net electricity generation worldwide rises by 2.3% per year on average from 2008 to 2035. Renewables are the fastest growing source of new electricity generation, increasing by 3.0% and outpacing the average annual increases for natural gas (2.6%), nuclear power (2.4%), and coal (1.9%). _GCC

Al Fin energy analysts suggest that the EIA is significantly understating the impact of global political instability on energy production. It is also unlikely that the dominant energy starvation agendas of the governments of the US, Japan, and much of Europe will dissipate quickly enough to allow a rapid rebound in nuclear reactor construction.

The toxic impact of the dieoff global green movement on the human future is very strong and persistent. It will be difficult for more rational humans to shake off the suffocating effects of irrational and hysterical greens -- and their proxies inside governments.

The twin problems of debt and demographic decline will likewise throw a retarding effect on efforts to keep up with projected demand.

Peak manpower in the energy industry will be another obstacle to be confronted in the near future. This problem is being driven by both a widespread demographic decline and a societal decay resulting in a dumbing down of cultures and populations. It will be a difficult problem to overcome, and may only be solved with the development of advanced machine cognition and robotics.

Needless to say, energy starvationists such as Obama and their coteries will have to be ejected soon, if these projections are likely to have much credibility.



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