Monday, January 24, 2011

Vinod Khosla Summarizes Vast Field of Biofuel Companies

Vinod Khosla is an important venturist godfather of the biofuels industry. In a recent Greentechmedia article, Khosla summarizes the field, and looks at some particular advantages and disadvantages. The table below comes from the GTM article.

Table 1: Major Biofuel Technology Pathways


Pathway


Feedstock


Outputs


Comments


FCU (minimum size cash flow positive facility)[1]


Liquid fermentation to higher alcohols, hydrocarbons and esters

Examples: LS9, Gevo, Amyris, Solazyme


Sugars (e.g., corn, sugar cane, hydrolysis  sugars from cellulosic feedstocks)


Highly controlled, single chemical output, pathway dependent (e.g., iso-butanol, FAME, Esters, lipids, Farnesene) fuels are less likely to be economic if they need significant post-processing. Direct production of fuel blends like butanol or FAME may allow for earlier entry into fuels.  Costs are less critical for chemicals.


Suitable for specialty chemicals and specialty fuels (e.g., jet). Starting to build first commercial units: target 2012 to 2013. Need to reach commercial yields at demo, and test 2,000-gallon-tank scale to prove economics or 100K gallon/year facility scale to have reliable data; many do; various chemical outputs give them options.


Retrofits/bolt-ons costing $40M to $100M to cash flow facility. Varies widely, but small $ allows low-risk bootup. Companies that require new facilities will have difficulty booting up unless facility is very low cost.


Liquid fermentation of cellulosic feedstocks to ethanol

Examples: Mascoma, Verenium, Qteros, (Novozymes, Danisco)


Sugars via hydrolysis of cellulosic material (described below)


Ethanol


Enzymatic processes such as Novozymes are unlikely to be competitive. Cheap cellulosic sugars may help enable these pathways. In Mascoma’s case, use of CBP (consolidated bioprocessing) helps alleviate the high cost of enzymes and may have lowest cost in this class, but none are economic yet.


$175M to $300M


Gas fermentation

Examples: Lanzatech, Coskata, Ineos


Steel/coal waste gas; syngas from biomass or coal


Highly controlled, single or multi chemical output (e.g., ethanol,  2,3-Butanediol, & other specialty chemicals)


High capex for biomass, but low opex; low capex  & opex for waste gases; suitable for ethanol, more upside in chemicals; FCU in 2012 to 2013


$400M to $500M for commercial plant with biomass gasification including fermentation; $50M to $100M for backend waste gas conversion


Catalyzed thermo-chemical cracking

Example: KiOR


Lignocellulosic biomass, all types, from wood whole logs, ag & wood wastes, algae  etc.


Relatively easy “drop-in” renewable crude oil. With hydrotreating, can produce fuel blendstock


Scalable process, familiar to oil industry. Similar supply chain and uses, FCU operational in 2011 to 12; likely to be competitive unsubsidized near term at $80 oil; high-value distillates


$75M to $125M


Solar fuels

Examples: Sapphire, Cellana, Aurora Algae, General Atomics, Petro algae


Waste water,  CO2 + sunlight 


Lipids that can be converted to biodiesel (FAME, green diesel, jet fuel or other), or nutraceuticals


No clear near term path to economic viability. High theoretical yields per acre (>4,000 gal/acre), but not proven. Pilot and demonstration scale.  We are skeptical of economics in this category; larger environmental risk for GMO open pond organisms


Hundreds of millions(?)


Natural oil hydro-treatment to produce hydrocarbons

Example: Dynamic Fuels


Natural oils and fats (palm, vegetable, animal fat, etc.)


Hydrocarbon fuels


Limited scalability due to feedstock


~$100M to $150M


Pyrolysis oil hydro-treatment to produce hydrocarbons

Examples:

UOP/Ensyn, Neste


Wood chips and wood waste


Hydrocarbon fuels


Significant hydro-treating required due to high oxygen content to produce hydrocarbons


~$100M to $200M(?)


Transesterification of vegetable oils, animal fats


Natural oils and fats (palm, vegetable, animal, etc.)


Biodiesel


Limited scalability. Often food-based and likely less economic. Land use concerns due to low yield.


 


Gasification with thermochemical conversion to ethanol, methanol and hydrocarbons

Examples: Choren, Rentech, Range


Cellulose/ hemicellulose/lignin


Syngas for fermentation, or for chemical catalysis conversion to ethanol, methanol, or Fischer Tropsch to hydrocarbons


Chemical catalysis for ethanol and Fischer Tropsch likely uneconomic. High capex, high opex.


Hundreds of millions


Liquid Catalytic conversion of sugars to hydrocarbons

Example: Virent


Sugars (e.g., corn, sugar cane, hydrolysis  sugars from cellulosic feedstocks)


Hydrocarbon fuels


Limited information available, clean sugars and hydrogen appear required for good  outputs. I am somewhat skeptical but have to admit less than full knowledge of details.


unknown

The vast field of biofuels companies cannot be adequately followed by oneself. It requires many analysts working simultaneously, painstakingly compiling information in an attempt to keep up with advances, and possible shenannigans.

It is best to read both advocates and skeptics of this commercial movement, just like with any other trend which promises (or threatens) to overturn the current order.

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