Vinod Khosla Summarizes Vast Field of Biofuel Companies

Vinod Khosla is an important venturist godfather of the biofuels industry. In a recent Greentechmedia article, Khosla summarizes the field, and looks at some particular advantages and disadvantages. The table below comes from the GTM article.

Table 1: Major Biofuel Technology Pathways

Pathway	Feedstock	Outputs	Comments	FCU (minimum size cash flow positive facility)[1]
Liquid fermentation to higher alcohols, hydrocarbons and esters Examples: LS9, Gevo, Amyris, Solazyme	Sugars (e.g., corn, sugar cane, hydrolysis  sugars from cellulosic feedstocks)	Highly controlled, single chemical output, pathway dependent (e.g., iso-butanol, FAME, Esters, lipids, Farnesene) fuels are less likely to be economic if they need significant post-processing. Direct production of fuel blends like butanol or FAME may allow for earlier entry into fuels.  Costs are less critical for chemicals.	Suitable for specialty chemicals and specialty fuels (e.g., jet). Starting to build first commercial units: target 2012 to 2013. Need to reach commercial yields at demo, and test 2,000-gallon-tank scale to prove economics or 100K gallon/year facility scale to have reliable data; many do; various chemical outputs give them options.	Retrofits/bolt-ons costing $40M to $100M to cash flow facility. Varies widely, but small $ allows low-risk bootup. Companies that require new facilities will have difficulty booting up unless facility is very low cost.
Liquid fermentation of cellulosic feedstocks to ethanol Examples: Mascoma, Verenium, Qteros, (Novozymes, Danisco)	Sugars via hydrolysis of cellulosic material (described below)	Ethanol	Enzymatic processes such as Novozymes are unlikely to be competitive. Cheap cellulosic sugars may help enable these pathways. In Mascoma’s case, use of CBP (consolidated bioprocessing) helps alleviate the high cost of enzymes and may have lowest cost in this class, but none are economic yet.	$175M to $300M
Gas fermentation Examples: Lanzatech, Coskata, Ineos	Steel/coal waste gas; syngas from biomass or coal	Highly controlled, single or multi chemical output (e.g., ethanol,  2,3-Butanediol, & other specialty chemicals)	High capex for biomass, but low opex; low capex  & opex for waste gases; suitable for ethanol, more upside in chemicals; FCU in 2012 to 2013	$400M to $500M for commercial plant with biomass gasification including fermentation; $50M to $100M for backend waste gas conversion
Catalyzed thermo-chemical cracking Example: KiOR	Lignocellulosic biomass, all types, from wood whole logs, ag & wood wastes, algae  etc.	Relatively easy “drop-in” renewable crude oil. With hydrotreating, can produce fuel blendstock	Scalable process, familiar to oil industry. Similar supply chain and uses, FCU operational in 2011 to 12; likely to be competitive unsubsidized near term at $80 oil; high-value distillates	$75M to $125M
Solar fuels Examples: Sapphire, Cellana, Aurora Algae, General Atomics, Petro algae	Waste water,  CO2 + sunlight	Lipids that can be converted to biodiesel (FAME, green diesel, jet fuel or other), or nutraceuticals	No clear near term path to economic viability. High theoretical yields per acre (>4,000 gal/acre), but not proven. Pilot and demonstration scale.  We are skeptical of economics in this category; larger environmental risk for GMO open pond organisms	Hundreds of millions(?)
Natural oil hydro-treatment to produce hydrocarbons Example: Dynamic Fuels	Natural oils and fats (palm, vegetable, animal fat, etc.)	Hydrocarbon fuels	Limited scalability due to feedstock	~$100M to $150M
Pyrolysis oil hydro-treatment to produce hydrocarbons Examples: UOP/Ensyn, Neste	Wood chips and wood waste	Hydrocarbon fuels	Significant hydro-treating required due to high oxygen content to produce hydrocarbons	~$100M to $200M(?)
Transesterification of vegetable oils, animal fats	Natural oils and fats (palm, vegetable, animal, etc.)	Biodiesel	Limited scalability. Often food-based and likely less economic. Land use concerns due to low yield.
Gasification with thermochemical conversion to ethanol, methanol and hydrocarbons Examples: Choren, Rentech, Range	Cellulose/ hemicellulose/lignin	Syngas for fermentation, or for chemical catalysis conversion to ethanol, methanol, or Fischer Tropsch to hydrocarbons	Chemical catalysis for ethanol and Fischer Tropsch likely uneconomic. High capex, high opex.	Hundreds of millions
Liquid Catalytic conversion of sugars to hydrocarbons Example: Virent	Sugars (e.g., corn, sugar cane, hydrolysis  sugars from cellulosic feedstocks)	Hydrocarbon fuels	Limited information available, clean sugars and hydrogen appear required for good  outputs. I am somewhat skeptical but have to admit less than full knowledge of details.	unknown

The vast field of biofuels companies cannot be adequately followed by oneself. It requires many analysts working simultaneously, painstakingly compiling information in an attempt to keep up with advances, and possible shenannigans.

It is best to read both advocates and skeptics of this commercial movement, just like with any other trend which promises (or threatens) to overturn the current order.