Saturday, July 10, 2010

More on Brian Wang's Winning Energy Bet w/ Michael Dittmar

Brian Wang discusses his winning bet with Dittmar for world uranium production in 2009. Dittmar not only lost to Brian, but he lost big in terms of percentage prediction error.

The Oil Drum picked up on Brian's winning bet, and attempted to downplay the meaning of Brian's win. Although The Oil Drum provides some useful articles by experts such as "Heading Out", and helpful links to energy articles in The Drumbeat, the website also often displays a quasi-religious faith in "peak oil" and "peak energy."

Brian provides a counter-point to Gail the Actuary's somewhat slanted piece, on his own blog and in comments at The Oil Drum.

The facts are quite important, since whether or not the world embarks upon "a nuclear renaissance" will have a lot to do with whether the developed world can readily ride out the transition from fossil fuel dependency to more sustainable and clean long-term energies. Energy is the life-blood of a modern civilisation. Access to energy is vital to all societies -- but particularly to advanced societies which are headed up a steep technological curve.

In another posting, Brian looks at the peak oil bet between doomer Matt Simmons and John Tierney at the NYT. Doomers clearly have "doom on the brain", and cannot see the world except through "doom-tinted" lenses.

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