1.38 BILLION GALLONS of Advanced Biofuels by 2013?

An ambitious goal to be sure: almost a 1,000 times increase between 2009 and 2013. Will it happen?

Planned capacity is expected to increase to 199.17 million gallons in 2011, primarily from the launch of 75 Mgy Dynamic Fuels project in Louisiana, the 20 Mgy Range Fuels demonstration in georgia, and the 10 Mgy cellulosic ethanol component of the AE Biofuels project in California, which transforms the old Cilion facility. Capacity increases to 217.10 million gallons in 2011, and 785 million gallons in 2012. In total, 52 companies have pilots, demos or commercial facilities open during the 2010-13 period, as tracked in the Digest database.

Note: Top executives representing 77 percent of global planned capacity (in 2009 as well as 2012) will be attending the Digest’s Advanced Biofuels Leadership Conference, April 27-29, 2010, in Washington DC. More on the conference here. _BiofuelsDigest

The projections are for capacity, not production. The two are not always the same thing -- as we have learned from the failures of the wind and solar industries.

Robert Rapier is an interested observor of the biomass to biofuels approach, and he provides a somewhat dissenting voice of caution.

One of Rapier's commenters pointed out the experience of industrial microbiolists in the pharmaceutical industry as an example of ways in which bio-industrial production of high value chemicals can be scaled up. Al Fin microbiologists agree that industrial microbiology will be pivotal in the transition to home-grown liquid fuels.