Monday, October 12, 2009

We Regret to Inform that Your Regularly Scheduled Peak Oil Catastrophe Has Been Cancelled

News media understands that fear is the great motivator for the modern connected individual. Everything becomes a crisis and a catastrophe, overhyped. Although North America contains over 5 trillion barrels of oil equivalent in the form of oil sands and shale oil, it also has a huge reserve of oil equivalent in the form of shale gas.
Tony Hayward, BP's chief executive, said proven natural gas reserves around the world have risen to 1.2 trillion barrels of oil equivalent, enough for 60 years' supply – and rising fast.

"There has been a revolution in the gas fields of North America. Reserve estimates are rising sharply as technology unlocks unconventional resources," he said.

This is almost unknown to the public, despite the efforts of Nick Grealy at "No Hot Air" who has been arguing for some time that Britain's shale reserves could replace declining North Sea output.

...The breakthrough has been to combine 3-D seismic imaging with new technologies to free "tight gas" by smashing rocks, known as hydro-fracturing or "fracking" in the trade.

The US is leading the charge. Operations in Pennsylvania and Texas have already been sufficient to cut US imports of liquefied natural gas (LGN) from Trinidad and Qatar to almost nil, with knock-on effects for the global gas market – and crude oil. It is one reason why spot prices for some LNG deliveries have dropped to 50pc of pipeline contracts.

Energy bulls gambling that the world economy will soon resume its bubble trajectory need to remember two facts: industrial production over the last year is still down 19pc in Japan, 18pc in Italy, 17pc in Germany, 15pc in Canada, 13pc in France and Russia. 11pc in the US and the UK and 10pc in Brazil. A 12pc rise in China does not offset this.

OPEC states are cheating on quota cuts. Non-compliance has fallen to 62pc from 82pc in March. Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela et al face a budget crunch. Why comply when non-OPEC Russia is pumping at breakneck speed?

The US Energy Department expects shale to meet half of US gas demand within 20 years, if not earlier. Projects are cranking up in eastern France and Poland. Exploration is under way in Australia, India and China. _Telegraph
Those who predict peak oil catastrophe anytime within the next century are blowing out the methane pipes for low brow consumption.

Peak oil is likely to occur within the next few decades however. Peak demand, followed by loss of interest in petroleum.

Political peak oil will be in effect, of course, until Obama, Pelosi, Boxer, Salazar, etc etc etc are removed from the public scene.



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