World Energy Reality Check

The set of tables below comes from a very useful Ecoworld article. They place the reality of the world's energy situation--in terms of the hope for replacing fossil fuels by renewable energy sources--in perspective. We will accomplish the task of converting to renewables. But it will not be done all at once, and it will not be done everywhere at once.

In terms of choosing between fossil fuel development and alternative energy development, [a] point which should be put to rest is the notion we are running out of fossil fuel. The next three charts show the potential reserves of the primary fossil fuels - oil, coal, and gas. In order to develop estimates for unconventional sources of these fuels, we have taken the midpoint between the high and low estimates. __quoted from Ecoworld

These are the world oil reserves, which alone would sustain the world at twice present energy usage for 59 years on known reserves alone. This is the oil we know we have. Over time, we will discover more--probably a lot more.
These are the world coal reserves, which alone would sustain the world at twice present energy usage for 218 years on known reserves alone. This is the coal we know we have. Over the next decades we will discover more--probably much more.
These are the world gas reserves, which alone would sustain the world at twice present energy usage for 45 years on known reserves alone, without depending upon methane hydrates.

So when you add it all up, at twice the current energy consumption overall, oil, gas and coal could potentially supply all the energy we need in the world for the next 300 years - not including gas hydrates.

If you add the estimated methane hydrates there are enough gas reserves to last almost 800 years, and enough fossil fuels together to last over 1,000 years, at twice overall current energy consumption.
This table looks at the cost in trillions of dollars to replace 500 quad BTUs of fossil fuels with various alternative energy sources. To replace fossil fuels entirely would require replacing twice that much, or 1,000 quad BTUs (or about 1,000 Exajoules) For example, to replace 500 quad BTUs of fossil fuels with rooftop PV would cost approx. US $626 trillion. For a full 1000 quad BTU fossil fuel replacement by rooftop PV, expect to spend US $1252 trillion.

You can see that:

1. The world is not close to running out of fossil fuels
2. Replacing fossil fuels at once with alternatives will cost many hundreds of trillions of dollars

The replacement of fossil fuels with alternatives and renewables will not be done all at once nor everywhere at once. Richer nations will likely convert to solar, wind, nuclear, and bio-energy much sooner than most poorer nations. But as more rich nations find their energy situations relatively secure, they will spend more time assisting poorer nations in that regard.

Those hundreds of trillions of dollars in investment will be spread out over time and place. The return on that investment will be long-term energy security. We have the time as long as we can avoid the type of panic that "peak oil" and "global warming" doom-seekers are trying to create--with the assistance of much of the news and entertainment media, and many politicians and bureaucrats.

It may be time to begin the thermochemical processing of some of the more panic-prone politicians, bureaucrats, and media personalities, into energy. In that way they could be of service in two ways: by their silence and by their BTUs. ;-)