Sunday, April 13, 2008

Oil Megaprojects: Production Holds its Own +

Brian Wang presents an impressive look at oil and gas "megaprojects" for this year and beyond.
The complete list of megaprojects at the wikipedia [oil megaprojects] is for over 13 million barrels per day added. Plus there is all of the small 200-25000 barrel per day small wells. Like several hundred in the Bakken to offset any 4.5% decline. Ten of thousands of small rigs. As pointed out by Dan a reader, 2006, 2007 were flat oil production years so roughly 3.5-4 million b/d of megaprojects has gone to offsetting decline. So 3 to 3.5 million b/d is the projected excess from 2008, 2009. So it would be 6-7 million barrels per day to be added net of any decline for the end of 2009 and into 2010 as those new additions scale up. If the increase in large projects also indicates more small projects then say 0.5-1.5 million b/d each year from that increase.

So if we are 87.3 million b/d Jan 2008. Then my prediction is a little over 90 million b/d at the end of 2008 (not the full 3.5-5 million b/d increase because of lag in scaling) For the end of 2009, over 94 million b/d and for the end of 2010, over 97 million b/d. __NextBigFuture

Check out Brian's full posting for much more information.

If you combine the information that Brian provides, with the information from yesterday's posting, you will see that Peak Oil predictions will almost certainly be off by decades, not just years.

Now, we need for bio-energy, nuclear energy, solar energy, enhanced geothermal energy, ocean energy, and wind energy to begin to kick in over the next several year time span.



Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts