Monday, November 12, 2012

Peak Oil Doom? Perhaps One of the Great Delusions

The graphics below come from Louis Basenese:

The above graphic demonstrates that global oil reserves continue to grow at at a steady rate. As economical and clean methods of unconventional liquid fuels continue to be developed and perfected, potential reserves of all liquid fuels will rise even faster.

Global oil production is also rising, as a reflection of increased prices due to emerging world demand. At the same time, demand for oil from the advanced world is declining.

Peak Oil is the theoretical idea that the world will eventually reach a maximum rate of oil production, which will be followed by a terminal decline. No doubt, that’s a scary theory should it come to pass. However, as Yogi Berra famously, said, “In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.”

...After peaking briefly around 60 million barrels per day in the mid-1970s, global oil production resumed its upward march. And now it’s firmly above 90 million barrels per day, according to the latest data from Energy Intelligence Group. _Louis Basenese
The Bakken oil basin in North America is one of the reasons why US oil production is shooting upward -- at the same time that oil demand is declining in the US. Some think that Bakken is on the way to being a "supergiant" -- producing over 1 million barrels of oil per day!
Bakken is proving to be one of the most prolific oil-producing patches in the world. It continues to outstrip even the most optimistic forecasts.

At the moment the industry has completed just 5,000 wells in the Bakken at an average spacing of less than 1 well per 1,280-acre unit. But Continental estimates the core could support up to 52,000 wells with four to eight wells per 1,280-acre unit for full development.

...Conventional super-giants such as Ghawar may never be discovered again, although exploration is pushing into new areas offshore and in the Arctic. But that may not matter if oil and gas can be wrung from more commonly occurring continuous deposits.

Bakken has a long way to go before production overtakes Ghawar. But the play has already defied most expectations that it will slow. At the very least, Bakken will join the world’s largest oil-producing zones next year. In the process, it has changed the oil industry forever. _FinancialPost
Peak oil is a trivial truism. But "peak oil doom" is a form of brain rot, for people with nothing important to do but killing time for the rest of their lives. Try not to let it happen to you or someone you love.



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